Extreme weather events are having far-reaching consequences on the poor region, whose population is rapidly growing.
The Sahel, the vast region that stretches along the Sahara’s southern rim from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, is on the front line of climate change, AFP reports.
Its extreme vulnerability to drought and shifting rainfall patterns is ratcheting up problems of poverty, population pressure and jihadist violence, experts say.
– Weather extremes –
Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, global temperatures have risen 1.1 degrees Celsius, according to a report issued in September by United in Science.
But this average warming is around 50% greater in the Sahel. In the last quarter of the 20th century, the region suffered the worst droughts of anywhere on the planet.
More recently, it has seen dramatic changes in rainfall patterns, with torrential downpours that cause temporary spurts in vegetation in scorched areas.
Rainfall – on average – is higher than 30 years ago, but much of it comes in the form of more extreme events, said Geremy Panthou, a climatologist at the University of Grenoble Alpes, who is working with Amma-Catch, a specialised meteorological agency in West Africa.
“We have recorded a large increase in extreme precipitation. Storms are more violent and droughts, when they occur, are more severe,” Panthou told AFP.
– Mounting impact –
These extreme events are having far-reaching consequences.
The region is very poor, has one of the highest demographic growth rates in the world and, in many areas, the soil has been damaged and suffered deforestation for firewood.
In countries where irrigation and drainage systems are sorely lacking, heavy rains have triggered repeated flooding of the Niger River. Rising seas stoked by global warming are also fuelling erosion in western coastal states of the Sahel.
According to the UN’s expert group, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), agricultural yields are likely to fall by 20% per decade in some parts of the Sahel by the end of the century.
Source: Natural Earth Data 2015
By the same timescale, the population in the six western countries of the Sahel alone — Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal – is likely to rise sixfold to 540m, according to UN projections.
Hunger is already chronic. Between June and August, 9.7m people were in a state of acute food insecurity, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
There has been a massive rural exodus in recent years, although exactly how many of those fleeing the countryside are doing so because of climate change, or because of poverty and jihadist violence, remains unknown.
– Emergency plan –
In February, 17 Sahel countries set down a plan to invest $400bn (€350bn) in fighting climate change by 2030. The scheme would earmark $1.3bn in projects to limit greenhouse-gas emissions and help adaptation to climate change.
The plan is overwhelmingly dependent on foreign aid, but experts say there is plenty of evidence to show that people in the Sahel are already taking matters in hand.
Many fishermen who depended on Lake Chad, which has shrunk by 90% over the last 40 years, have turned to farming the rich exposed soils.
Another example of resilience is eco-forestry, to provide shade for cattle and fending material for crops. (©AFP 5/12 2019)
Find out more in the Africa Research Bulletin:
Sahel Climate Investment Summit (Niamey)
Economic, Financial and Technical series
Vol. 56, Issue 2
Africa Climate Resilient Infrastructure Summit
Economic, Financial and Technical series
Vol. 52, Issue 4
Sahel Alliance: Anti-Terror Aid
Political, Social and Cultural series
Vol. 55, Issue 12
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